Revenue Intelligence
Channel decomposition · margin bridge · quarterly forecast
Margin compression driven by channel mix shift and IPPI pressure
Volume growth in Direct and Online channels is being offset by faster growth in low-margin Distributor channel (28.4% GM) and a -1.7pp COGS impact from IPPI rising 12.4% YoY. Five negative-margin SKUs are dragging $112K of gross profit. Recommend price review on SKU-Group B and renegotiation of top 3 distributor agreements before Q4.
Revenue Snapshot
LTM Revenue
$11.1M
↑ +6.1% vs prior year
9-month trailing · all channels
Avg Monthly Revenue
$1.24M
→ Q3 trending -4% vs Q2
Simple monthly average
Top SKU Contribution
$1651K
↑ 8 SKUs · top 20%
Gross margin $K from top performers
Negative-Margin SKU Drag
-$112K
↓ 5 SKUs · SKU-Group B
Gross profit lost to loss-making SKUs
Revenue by Channel
Monthly Revenue by Channel
Stacked $M CAD · filter by region
42.1%
↓ compressing GM
28.4%
↓ compressing GM
51.8%
→ stable GM
22.6%
↓ compressing GM
Margin & Forecast
Gross Margin Bridge — Q2 → Q3
Contribution of each driver in percentage points (pp)
Quarterly Revenue — Actual vs XGBoost Forecast
$M CAD · Q4 2025 onward = P10/P50/P90 forecast
SKU Contribution — Top 8 & Bottom 5
Gross Margin by SKU
Gross margin $K contribution · trailing 9 months · red = negative-margin SKUs
Top 8 SKUs generate
$1651K
of gross margin
Bottom 5 SKUs destroy
-$112K
of gross margin
Action
Review pricing or discontinue SKU-Group B
Revenue decomposition from DuckDB SQL on ERP order data. Margin bridge uses Shapley-style attribution across price, volume, mix, and cost drivers. Quarterly forecast: XGBoost trained on 8 quarters of ERP data, macro-adjusted via BoC rate trajectory and StatCan IPPI. All inference in-browser via ONNX — no data leaves your device.