Customer Risk
60-day default probability · DSO trend · revenue concentration
3 customers show high default probability — $1.55M AR at risk
C-0047 (Meridian Supply) has a 71% 60-day default probability driven by rising DSO (+36d in 6 months), sector exposure, and high invoice concentration. C-0012 (Kestrel Industrial) carries $820K of outstanding AR. Recommend credit hold review for both and accelerated collection outreach before month-end.
Portfolio Risk Summary
High-Risk Accounts
2 customers
↓ $1000K avg exposure
≥ 60% 60-day default probability
AR at Risk
$0M
↓ High-risk accounts only
Outstanding AR from high-risk cohort
Top 5 Revenue Concentration
48.8%
→ Herfindahl risk: Moderate
Top 5 customers as % of total revenue
High-Risk Cohort DSO
60d
↓ +30d vs 6 months ago
Average DSO, high-risk accounts
Customer Risk Scores
60-Day Default Probability
XGBoost model · DSO trend + concentration + sector · click row for SHAP drivers
Customer
Default Risk
DSO
DSO Trend
Rev %
AR $K
Concentration & DSO Cohort Analysis
Revenue Concentration
% of total revenue by customer tier · top 5 = 48.8% of book
DSO Trend by Risk Cohort
Average days sales outstanding · High / Medium / Low risk · last 6 months
Default Probability Distribution
Portfolio Distribution — 60-Day Default Probability
Customer count by probability bucket · 8 accounts shown of 80 total
Default probability: XGBoost classifier trained on 8 quarters of AR aging data. Features: DSO trend slope, invoice concentration ratio, payment velocity, sector macro score. SHAP values computed at inference time. All models run in-browser via ONNX Runtime Web — no data leaves your device.